Trump vs. Putin
Today the President published the most important clues on his strategy and mindset towards Russia. Here's the bottom line.
This week Trump offered his most consequential statements on Russia’s war on Ukraine. He labeled Russia the aggressor. He directly confronted Putin.He called Putin’s war “ridiculous” and implicated the Russian leader in destroying his own economy. He asked Saudi Arabia to help America bring even greater economic stress against Moscow. He took a carrot and stick approach, including promised consequences if Russia refuses to play ball.
It was a pivot. A gentle, but unequivocal pivot. A prelude to greater escalation.
No, he did not detail the criminality of the Russian regime, as he did for Hamas. Nor did he demand the release of more than 20,000 Ukrainian children abducted by Russia, as he demanded the release of remaining hostages in Gaza. Nor did he pledge America’s undying support for Ukraine, as he did for Israel. Nor did he explain that until Russia is soundly defeated in Ukraine, as Hamas must ultimately be defeated in Gaza, there will never be lasting peace.
What Trump did was to make clear that Russia is the impediment to peace, not Ukraine. He stated that Russia “is going to be in big trouble,” and that the war “does not make Russia look good.” More importantly, he officially challenged Putin to a test of will: Play nice, make peace, and we can be friends. Refuse to make peace, and America will crush you through sanctions, restrictions, and tariffs.
Don’t get hung up on appropriate skepticism about sanctions. This is the start of a chess game. The fact that the resolve of Moscow has up to now largely been impervious to economic sanctions or that it is improbable that the threat of new sanctions will create a tipping point for Putin is less important than that the gloves have been thrown.
It is also a mistake to focus on Trump’s comments about the “Russia HOAX,” or his misleading statement on the Stalinist Soviet Union’s role in World War II, a conflict which Moscow helped to start with it’s alliance with Hitler, and afterwards used as a pretext to enslave large portions of the world.
These comments are troubling and ill conceived, but they are not the main point. It is pure Trump - a message not only to Putin, but to millions of Russian people that the Kremlin is the problem, not America and not Trump.
The stage is now set for America to use more than economic sanctions to bend the will of Russia. Trump and his advisors have been hinting about this for months. According to the Trump team, if nothing else will work, America will be forced to “arm Ukraine to the teeth.”
Trump is hoping not to get there. He will have to sell the concept to his base, some of whom are poisoned to Ukraine, wrongly assuming that supporting Ukraine is tantamount to supporting Biden. Others wrongfully believe Trump advocated a form of neo-isolationism like themselves.
At the moment, Trump is taking a middle path. It’s a rejection of the pro-Putin sycophants who hover near the president. It is also a rejection of the pro-Ukrainian, pro-freedom view which stands squarely within the historical Reagan tradition.
It is a third way. The way of Trump. The art of the deal. It’s about his personal power to negotiate an outcome which he believes works for everyone. It’s about avoiding moral judgments or troubling facts which hinder getting the deal done. It’s about relationships, respect, personality, and high stakes poker. It’s about the bottom line - signing the deal, claiming victory, and moving on.
Yes, it could be much better. It could also be much worse.
What is the best and most reasonable hope for Ukraine in this process? A ceasefire could be very helpful for Ukraine at the moment, but it does not solve the bigger problem.
Ukraine needs to defeat Russia. The world needs Ukraine to defeat Russia. Taiwan needs Ukraine to defeat Russia. So does Israel. Europe needs it and wants it. America needs it as much as anyone, even if we presently fail to recognize the consequences of a U.S. brokered peace deal which is actually little more than Russia extorting Ukraine by conditioning a cease fire on the legitimization of their theft and the purchase of American silence concerning their vast war crimes.
One path to that conclusion looks something like this: Russia remains intractable. Putin offends Trump. The American president gets wise to the way Russia lies, manipulates and undermines at his expense. It becomes personal. No brokered peace deal is in sight within six months. Trump initiates aggressive sanctions. The Kremlin remains unmoved. They continue to target civilians, level cities, and disregard Trump’s overtures for peace. Trump has only one bullet left in the chamber. He must do what he originally signaled in the event of Russian obstinacy - arm Ukraine more than Biden was ever willing to do.
Trump is hoping not to get there. Arming Ukraine would be a supreme test of Trump’s will and resolve. It means possible division within his own camp. He prefers “the easy way.”
Trump’s approach was completely predictable. Given Trump’s promises and statements, this was the expected path for his opening salvos. He had no intention of dropping Ukraine. He had no intention of taking a strong moral stand against Russia. Just enough, but not too much. He wants to use ambiguity to his advantage. It’s the opposite strategy from what he used with Hamas.
But all this could change on a dime. Everything comes down to one question - how far is Russia willing to go to impede his goal for a cease fire?
A lot can happen over the next six months. Here is what we know about next steps:
A meeting between Trump and Putin is imminent. At that meeting, flattery will be Putin’s most effective weapon. That may not yield Russia the outcomes it once did. Trump is officially on the clock. He needs results soon.
Expect Trump to characterize such a meeting as a victory, but to also use it to project American strength and determination to broker a cease fire. Expect something similar to yesterday’s post on Truth Social - “Vlad, I love ya and your people, but you're not going to win this one. “
DW Phillips is a filmmaker, attorney and writer. He directs for Ukraine Story, a foundation for documentary reporting and journalism.
